Climate change and hydrological dam safety: a stochastic methodology based on climate projections

IF 2.8 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 WATER RESOURCES

Hydrological Sciences Journal-Journal Des Sciences Hydrologiques Pub Date : 2023-04-26 DOI:10.1080/02626667.2023.2192873

Marco Lompi, L. Mediero, E. Soriano, E. Caporali

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引用次数: 1

Abstract

ABSTRACT Climate change will likely increase the frequency and magnitude of extreme precipitation events and floods, increasing design peak flows that could lead to underestimates in current spillway capacity. Therefore, new methodologies for hydrological dam safety assessment considering climate change are required. This study presents a methodology that considers the impact of climate change on both inflow hydrographs and initial reservoir water levels. Moreover, the uncertainty in the procedure is assessed. The methodology is applied to the Eugui Dam in the River Arga catchment (Spain). An ensemble of 12 climate models is used. The results show an increase in the maximum reservoir water level during flood events and in the overtopping probability in the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP 8.5 scenario), especially in the 2071–2100 time window. The proposed methodology can be useful to assess future hydrological dam safety, fulfilling the requirements of recent regulations to consider the impact of climate change on dams.

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气候变化与水文大坝安全：基于气候预测的随机方法

气候变化可能会增加极端降水事件和洪水的频率和强度，增加设计峰值流量，从而可能导致对当前溢洪道容量的低估。因此，需要新的考虑气候变化的水文大坝安全评价方法。本研究提出了一种考虑气候变化对入流水文曲线和水库初始水位影响的方法。此外，还对程序中的不确定性进行了评估。该方法应用于阿尔加河流域的Eugui大坝(西班牙)。使用了12个气候模式的集合。结果表明，在典型浓度路径8.5 (RCP 8.5情景)条件下，2071—2100年时间段内，洪涝事件发生时水库最高水位增加，水库超顶概率增大。所提出的方法可用于评估未来水文大坝的安全性，满足考虑气候变化对大坝影响的最新法规的要求。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Hydrological Sciences Journal-Journal Des Sciences Hydrologiques 环境科学-水资源

CiteScore

6.60

自引率

11.40%

发文量

144

审稿时长

9.8 months

期刊介绍： Hydrological Sciences Journal is an international journal focused on hydrology and the relationship of water to atmospheric processes and climate. Hydrological Sciences Journal is the official journal of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS). Hydrological Sciences Journal aims to provide a forum for original papers and for the exchange of information and views on significant developments in hydrology worldwide on subjects including: Hydrological cycle and processes Surface water Groundwater Water resource systems and management Geographical factors Earth and atmospheric processes Hydrological extremes and their impact Hydrological Sciences Journal offers a variety of formats for paper submission, including original articles, scientific notes, discussions, and rapid communications.