Cholera: Analysis and Assessment of Epidemiological Situation around the World and in Russia (2013–2022). Forecast for 2023

Abstract

The aim of the review was to analyze and assess the epidemiological situation on cholera in the world and Russia in 2013–2022 and to make a forecast for 2023. Over the period of 2013–2022, 500 administrative territories affected by cholera were identified in various regions of 71 countries of Asia, Africa and America (the Caribbean region) with formation of 69 endemic foci in 16, 41 and 12 countries, respectively. In 2022, 1 209 301 cases of cholera were registered in 36 countries of the world. The intensity of epidemic process in Asian countries (Syria, Lebanon) increased. Unfavorable epidemiological situation on the African continent persisted. Epidemics and large outbreaks, which began in 2021–2022 due to emergency situations (ES) of social and natural character, continued. The prediction of the stability of the epidemiological situation on cholera in the territories of constituent entities of the Russian Federation (RF), given for 2022, has been confirmed. In 2022, 43 non-toxigenic strains of Vibrio cholerae О1 were isolated from surface water bodies, 8 V. cholerae nonO1/nonO139 strains – from humans. Similarity of those strains with genetically closely related ones isolated in the course of monitoring in previous years in Russia, Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) and Zaporozhye Region was demonstrated. In 2023, the risks of importation of the infection into RF are retained. It is associated with the intensification of epidemic processes in Asian, African and Caribbean region countries. The extended border with Ukraine, to where importation of cholera from endemic countries is possible, contributes to increased degree of threat. Bioterrorism is also not excluded. The consequences of a possible cholera epidemic complication in DPR, Lugansk People’s Republic, Zaporozhye and Kherson Regions are exacerbated by social emergencies resulting in disruption of infrastructure, interruptions in water supply, etc. In the absence of implementation of the risks of importation of this infection on the territory of RF, a stable epidemiological situation on cholera will be retained. Detection of non-toxigenic V. cholerae O1 strains (including probability of clonal complexes formation), as well as strains of non-O1/non-O139 serogroups, which can be etiological factors of sporadic cases or outbreaks of diarrheal diseases, in surface water bodies is predicted.