Still Getting Asia Wrong: No “Contain China” Coalition Exists

Abstract

Is there an incipient East Asian containment coalition against China? Evidence leads to the conclusion that there is not. Yet for almost three decades, scholars have been claiming that the rapid growth of Chinese power is, will or should cause East Asian countries to balance against it and join a US-led containment coalition. Those claiming that East Asian states are already containing China include political scientist Michael Beckley, who writes that “China’s neighbors are arming themselves and aligning with outside powers to secure their territory and sea-lanes. Many of the world’s largest economies are collectively developing new trade, investment, and technology standards that implicitly discriminate against China.” In 2014, scholars Adam Liff and John Ikenberry claimed that “there is already some evidence of security dilemmadriven military competition in the Asia Pacific, which could worsen significantly in the near future... [S]ecurity dilemma dynamics appear to be important drivers of states enhancing military capabilities in the increasingly volatile Asia Pacific region.” Predictions of balancing against China go back as far as 1993, when political scientist Richard Betts asked, “Should we want China to get rich or not? For realists, the answer should be no, since a rich China would overturn any balance of power.” In 2005, John Mearsheimer predicted that “China cannot rise peacefully...Most of China’s neighbors, including India, Japan, Singapore, South Korea, Russia, and Vietnam, will likely join with the United States to contain China’s power.”