Estimation of steady-state quantities of an HMM with some rarely generated emissions

Abstract

Abstract We propose to apply the importance sampling and the antithetic variates statistical techniques to estimate steady-state quantities of an Hidden Markov chain (HMM) of which certain emissions are rarely generated. Compared to standard Monte Carlo simulation, the use of these techniques, allow a significant reduction in simulation time. Numerical Monte Carlo examples are studied to show the usefulness and efficiency of the proposed approach.