DÉFICIT FISCAL, CRECIMIENTO ECONÓMICO E INFLACIÓN, ¿UNA RELACIÓN EXÓGENA?

Abstract

En este articulo analizamos la relacion entre el crecimiento economico, el deficit fiscal y la inflacion en Mexico, considerando el periodo en que ha estado vigente la autonomia del Banco de Mexico respecto del gobierno. Estimamos dos modelos CVAR para demostrar que si el gasto de gobierno es endogeno al crecimiento economico, entonces el deficit fiscal no es necesariamente la unica causa de la inflacion. Nuestros resultados muestran que, aun sin causalidad en el sentido de Granger, existe una relacion negativa de largo plazo entre el gasto de gobierno y la inflacion. De manera conjunta, ambos modelos revelan que a mayor crecimiento economico, mayor gasto fiscal y menor inflacion. FISCAL DEFICIT, ECONOMIC GROWTH AND INFLATION, AN EXOGENOUS RELATIONSHIP? ABSTRACT This paper deals with the relationship between output growth, fiscal deficit and the rate of inflation in Mexico for the period of the independence of Banco de Mexico. A couple of CVAR models are estimated with the aim of testing whether the government expenditure is endogenous to economic growth, in which case the fiscal deficit will not necessarily be the sole source of inflation. According to our empirical results, it is shown that there is a long-run negative relationship between government spending and inflation, without involving a Granger causality. Both models jointly reveal that the higher the economic growth rate, the larger government expenditure and the lower the rate of inflation.