{"title":"Ensemble hydrological forecasts for reservoir management of the Shipshaw River catchment using limited data","authors":"Estelle Reig, M. Boucher, Éric Tremblay","doi":"10.1080/07011784.2020.1834880","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Many hydropower companies continue to rely on expert judgment to manage the operations of their reservoirs. Decision-support systems, composed of a hydrological forecasting system and a reservoir model, can ensure that reservoir operation objectives are attained more effectively than by relying solely on expert judgment. In this study, a simple ensemble inflow forecasting system coupled with a reservoir model is developed and the proposed model-based operational water management decisions are compared with those based on expert judgment for the Shipshaw River in Quebec, Canada. Given that no natural streamflow records are available for the Shipshaw River, the HEC-HMS hydrological model is calibrated using a regionalization method based on physical similarity. The calibrated hydrological model is fed by ensemble meteorological forecasts that include 20 members, with a 10-day horizon and a 6-hour time step. The proposed decision-support system can help avoid small flooding events while potentially improving energy production by 2 to 60% for this case study. The proposed forecasting system also allows water-resource managers to anticipate events with a greater lead time.","PeriodicalId":55278,"journal":{"name":"Canadian Water Resources Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.7000,"publicationDate":"2020-10-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/07011784.2020.1834880","citationCount":"2","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Canadian Water Resources Journal","FirstCategoryId":"93","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1080/07011784.2020.1834880","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"WATER RESOURCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Abstract
Abstract Many hydropower companies continue to rely on expert judgment to manage the operations of their reservoirs. Decision-support systems, composed of a hydrological forecasting system and a reservoir model, can ensure that reservoir operation objectives are attained more effectively than by relying solely on expert judgment. In this study, a simple ensemble inflow forecasting system coupled with a reservoir model is developed and the proposed model-based operational water management decisions are compared with those based on expert judgment for the Shipshaw River in Quebec, Canada. Given that no natural streamflow records are available for the Shipshaw River, the HEC-HMS hydrological model is calibrated using a regionalization method based on physical similarity. The calibrated hydrological model is fed by ensemble meteorological forecasts that include 20 members, with a 10-day horizon and a 6-hour time step. The proposed decision-support system can help avoid small flooding events while potentially improving energy production by 2 to 60% for this case study. The proposed forecasting system also allows water-resource managers to anticipate events with a greater lead time.
期刊介绍:
The Canadian Water Resources Journal accepts manuscripts in English or French and publishes abstracts in both official languages. Preference is given to manuscripts focusing on science and policy aspects of Canadian water management. Specifically, manuscripts should stimulate public awareness and understanding of Canada''s water resources, encourage recognition of the high priority of water as a resource, and provide new or increased knowledge on some aspect of Canada''s water.
The Canadian Water Resources Journal was first published in the fall of 1976 and it has grown in stature to be recognized as a quality and important publication in the water resources field.