AI, Demand and the Impact of Productivity-enhancing Technology on Jobs: Evidence from Portugal

IF 1.3 4区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Eastern European Economics Pub Date : 2022-04-22 DOI:10.1080/00128775.2022.2064307

Pedro Bação, Vanessa Gaudêncio Lopes, Marta C. N. Simões

引用次数: 1

Abstract

ABSTRACT This study examines whether AI, as revealed in productivity improvements, may have the ability to threaten sectoral employment in Portugal. We first present a theoretical framework based on a supply and demand model for sectoral output. This model predicts that the impact of AI will depend on the response of labor demand to two opposing forces: as productivity improves less labor is required to produce the same output, while more output is demanded because of lower production costs brought about by higher productivity, which creates more jobs. Our estimates of the industry-level elasticities of employment with respect to productivity for a sample of 32 industries over 1995–2017 using a Bayesian multilevel approach are all negative and surprisingly similar across sectors.

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人工智能、需求和提高生产力技术对就业的影响：来自葡萄牙的证据

摘要本研究考察了人工智能是否有能力威胁葡萄牙的部门就业，正如生产力提高所揭示的那样。我们首先提出了一个基于部门产出供需模型的理论框架。该模型预测，人工智能的影响将取决于劳动力需求对两种相反力量的反应：随着生产力的提高，生产相同产出所需的劳动力减少，而生产成本的提高则带来了更多的产出，从而创造了更多的就业机会。我们使用贝叶斯多水平方法对1995-2017年32个行业样本的行业层面就业相对于生产力的弹性进行了估计，结果均为负值，而且各行业之间惊人地相似。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Eastern European Economics ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

2.20

自引率

9.10%

发文量

期刊介绍： Eastern European Economics publishes original research on the newly emerging economies of Central and Eastern Europe, with coverage of the ongoing processes of transition to market economics in different countries, their integration into the broader European and global economies, and the ramifications of the 2008-9 financial crisis. An introduction by the journal"s editor adds context and expert insights on the articles presented in each issue.