Forecasts of the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Russia’s Development in 2020

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated economic and social problems in Russia. According to the Russian Ministry of economic development, the largest drop in GDP in 2020 is expected in the second quarter (by 9.5% in annual terms), when the country’s economy was slowed down due to quarantine. In the third and fourth quarters of 2020, GDP is projected to fall to 6.3% and 5.2%, respectively. Unemployment in Russia in 2020 will be the highest since 2011 and will grow to 5.7%. Real incomes of the population will decrease by 3.8% by the end of this year [3]. During the second wave of the epidemic (September-October 2020), a serious problem is arising for all regions. First of all, this is manifested in the shortage of doctors. Additional assistance attracting medical graduates and students is exhausting its potential. In the regions, there is a shortage of beds in hospitals and CT scanners [4]. During the pandemic, universities and other educational organizations switched to distance learning. Despite the fact that this forced measure allowed to reduce the number of infections among students and teachers, distance learning cannot fully replace face-to-face education, especially in medical faculties. As a result, students do not have a sufficient degree of mastering practical skills, which can lead to a decrease in the level of professional competencies [2]. Conclusions: Despite all measures to control the spread of viral infection, there is a steady trend towards an increase in the incidence. The population and government officials are getting rid of illusions on a global scale, understanding the long-term and, possibly, total nature of the problem. It is generally accepted that three factors play a role in the victory over a viral infection: anti-epidemiological and therapeutic measures; resources of the human immune system; mutations of the virus itself. However, in the recent history of mankind there are examples of viral pandemics (Spanish flu, Hong Kong flu, SARS, MERS), viruses that cause these diseases, suddenly appearing and suddenly losing their dangerous properties or disappearing