An Analysis of the Gross Domestic Product of Municipalities: A Spatial Glance into the State of Paraná-Brazil

Abstract

The vast relevance of applications of spatial regression models has recently captured the interest of Economics and Agriculture, in the sense of better understanding the spatial behavior of the region under study, in the different forms of approaches. It is interesting to understand why some regions show greater variability than others, and why some forms of regional development are better explained. It is up to the researcher to understand, explore, and organize a series of observations, so that it is possible to make predictions, diagnoses, and recommendations to public policy managers and regional development agents. The municipalities’ Gross Domestic Product (Gdp) has driven studies involving spatial information. The objective of this study was to analyze the Gdp of the municipalities in Paraná-Brazil, in 2018, regarding soybean yield, corn yield, pig production, and the tax on the circulation of goods, through different approaches of spatial regression models. SAR and CAR models are global models, while the GWR model is considered a local one. Three spatial analysis models were used to perform this study: Spatial Autoregressive (SAR), Conditional Autoregressive (CAR), and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR). The results were compared using the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), Cross-Validation Criterion (CVC), and the descriptive graphic of residual diagnoses-Worm Plot. The best result obtained was for the GWR model, which best explained the GDP of the state of Paraná-Brazil in terms of its covariates.