Implementation of the Prophet Model in COVID-19 Cases Forecast

Abstract

One of the steps to understanding this pandemic is to look at the spread of the data by predicting an increase in cases in various countries so that prevention can be carried out as early as possible. One way to see fluctuations in COVID-19 pandemic data is to predict the rate of cases using forecasting methods so that conclusions can be drawn on the spread of COVID-19 pandemic data around the world to be processed using statistical models. This study will implement the use of the Prophet Model in seeing the rate of development of COVID-19 in the world using four features in the forecasting process such as the number of confirmed cases, the number of cases of recovered patients, the number of cases of death, and the number of active cases. The results of this study produce forecasting data on the number of cases of the COVID-19 pandemic that can be viewed daily, weekly, and even monthly. Forecasting results show the first spike at the end of March until the number of cases reached around 10,275,800 million as of June 29, 2020, where the number of cases grew exponentially until June 29, 2020. The case rate of growth in many instances experienced significant growth until the end of October, touching the number in the range of 34,507,150 million as of October 25, 2020. After June 29, 2020, a very high spike was different from the increase in cases in the previous months. Forecasting results show no point decline because historical data on the number of daily confirmed cases of the COVID-19 pandemic has not decreased. The forecasting results in this study are expected to be able to systematically predict events or events that will occur in the COVID-19 pandemic around the world with the help of valid periodic data so that some information can be obtained for preventive measures related to the COVID-19 pandemic.