An Analysis of Media 24's “Economist of the Year” Forecasting Competition

Abstract

Abstract We rank the forecast accuracy of 21 individuals and 8 institutions which have participated in Media 24's “Economist of the Year” forecasting competition for at least 10 of the past 14 years. Participants predict 12 macroeconomic and financial variables at the start of the year, and update their predictions during the course of the year. Over the 14-year period the “consensus forecast” (i.e. the average of the various forecasts) has outperformed all other participants. There is substantial variation in predictive accuracy among participants. Having won the competition at some point is not an indicator of producing consistently accurate forecasts.