Industrial growth and technological prospects

Abstract

For Russia, technological prospects of industrial growth come from Industry 4.0. The possibilities for their realisation depend on the combination of labour and fixed capital. The study focuses on identifying the conditions for the growth of capital in the industry, which creates it for both industrial and non-industrial sectors, as an important process that symbolises technological renewal. In addition to the introduction of digital technologies, a very wide range of production technologies need to be replaced. Methodologically, the research relies on the theory of industrial growth; employs methods of comparative, taxonomic analysis, elements of econometric modeling and formalisation of the relationship between the parameters under consideration using the classical production function. Their application demonstrates that the effect of Bazarov’s curve manifests itself also when addressing the problem of technological modernisation of industry, and has a regular character. A fundamental limitation to positive technological prospects and industrial growth is the presence of a vicious circle of development specific for the Russian industry, when the undercapitalization of the industry arises not only due to the consumption of the generated incomes, the dynamics of which has long been rather low, but also due to their distraction to other directions. The theoretical result of the study is obtaining the exact condition for the growth of industrial capital as the criterion of industrialisation. It allows establishing the area of industrialisation based on the growth of capital in non-industrial sectors exceeding the growth of labour in industry. The paper justifies the typologies of development models of industry as an economic system within the coordinates “capital – labour” and specifies modes of managing this development depending on the growth rates of labour and capital.