We have got to up our game substantially for forests, carbon, biodiversity, and ultimately people

P. Waeber, Lucienne Wilmé
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Abstract

A recently published contribution in Nature by Lenton et al. (2019) shows that Earth is risking an irreversible planetary tipping point. This means that the Earth’s climate system is in a state of emergency, rushing its way towards a point of no return. The authors have identified nine tipping points—inter alia—melting Arctic and Antarctic ice sheets, retreating permafrost, changing boreal forest fire and pest regimes, and increased frequency of droughts in the Amazon forest. These signals are raising global concerns. While science expected these tipping points to be reached at 3°C increase (e.g., Lemoine and Traeger 2016), recent trends are corroborating the hypothesis that these points of irreversible and abrupt system change already show high probability of being reached within the bounds of 1.5–2°C. During the COP21 of the United Nation Framework Convention for Climate Change (UNFCCC), 195 countries adopted the Paris Agreement to limit global temperature rise to well below 2°C.
为了森林、碳、生物多样性,以及最终的人类,我们必须大幅提高我们的游戏水平
Lenton等人最近在《自然》杂志上发表的一篇文章(2019年)表明,地球正面临着不可逆转的行星临界点。这意味着地球的气候系统正处于紧急状态,正朝着一个不可逆转的临界点狂奔。这组作者已经确定了9个临界点,其中包括北极和南极冰盖融化、永久冻土退缩、北方森林火灾和虫害制度的变化,以及亚马逊森林干旱频率的增加。这些信号正在引起全球关注。虽然科学界预计这些临界点将在升温3°C时达到(例如,Lemoine和Traeger, 2016年),但最近的趋势证实了这样的假设,即这些不可逆和突然的系统变化点已经显示出在1.5-2°C范围内达到的高概率。在《联合国气候变化框架公约》(UNFCCC)第21次缔约方会议期间,195个国家通过了《巴黎协定》,将全球气温上升幅度限制在远低于2摄氏度的水平。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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