Application of the Delphi Method for the identification of relevant variables in the development of low-power photovoltaic solar projects in Colombia

Abstract

Introduction: This paper is the product of the investigation “Identification of relevant variables in the development of photovoltaic solar projects in Colombia” developed at the Universidad Distrital Francisco José de Caldas (UDFJC) between 2020 and 2021. Due to the increase in the number of photovoltaic energy projects in Colombia, it is necessary to quantify the level of relevance related with the factors involved in order to optimize the planning and execution processes. Methods: In this research, the Delphi methodology is applied to evaluate a set of variables selected from literature, putting them to an evaluation by a group of experts with the purpose of quantifying the relationship, under a subjective judgment, between those variables and parameters immersed in low power photovoltaic solar projects in Colombia. Together with the Delphi method, the Torgerson Model was used to quantify what experts said, in order to determine which variables are the most relevant ones to the experts. Subsequently, the validation of these answers is carried out with the application of a second evaluative stage throughout the application of structured instruments. Resultados: Luego de obtener el consenso general, se analizan los resultados con el ideal de identificar las variables que obtuvieron un mayor nivel de relevancia, en las cuales se identificaron seis variables relevantes. Conclusiones: Este trabajo muestra cómo los resultados de los procesos de investigación obtienen las variables más relevantes, siendo 6 variables en total, y se analiza su impacto. Originalidad: Aplicando el método Delphi, es posible encontrar las variables más relevantes en el desarrollo de proyectos solares fotovoltaicos de baja potencia en Colombia, haciendo de este trabajo un elemento importante en el avance de las energías renovables. Limitación: No se logró una muestra masiva de resultados por la dificultad de contactar a los profesionales adecuados en el área analizada.