Durable institution under fire? The NPT confronts emerging multipolarity

IF 4 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
R. Gibbons, Stephen Herzog
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引用次数: 11

Abstract

ABSTRACT The regime built around the 1970 Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) has helped curtail the spread of nuclear arms for fifty years. In hindsight, it is remarkable only nine states possess the world’s most powerful weapon. The NPT achieved much success during Cold War bipolarity and U.S. unipolarity in its aftermath. But today, China’s rise and Russia’s resurgence have ushered in a new era of emerging multipolarity. Can the treaty withstand the potential challenges of this dynamic environment? There is a real risk that multipolarity may shake the scaffolding of the nonproliferation regime, presenting a significant test to the NPT’s durability. This article identifies four essential elements of the nonproliferation regime: widespread membership, adaptability, enforcement, and fairness. History suggests bipolarity and unipolarity in the international system largely sustained and promoted these NPT features. When international regimes lack such elements, it sharply curtails their long-term efficacy.
持久的机构遭受攻击?《不扩散核武器条约》面对的是正在形成的多极化
围绕1970年《不扩散核武器条约》(NPT)建立的体制在过去50年里帮助遏制了核武器的扩散。事后看来,值得注意的是,世界上最强大的武器只有9个国家拥有。《不扩散核武器条约》在冷战两极化和美国单极化时期取得了很大成功。但今天,中国的崛起和俄罗斯的复兴开启了多极化的新时代。该条约能否经受住这一动态环境的潜在挑战?多极化确实有可能动摇防扩散制度的框架,对《不扩散核武器条约》的持久性构成重大考验。本文确定了防扩散机制的四个基本要素:广泛的成员资格、适应性、执行力和公平性。历史表明,国际体系中的双极性和单极性在很大程度上维持和促进了《不扩散条约》的这些特征。当国际体制缺乏这些要素时,就会严重削弱其长期效力。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
14.60
自引率
6.80%
发文量
22
期刊介绍: One of the oldest peer-reviewed journals in international conflict and security, Contemporary Security Policy promotes theoretically-based research on policy problems of armed conflict, intervention and conflict resolution. Since it first appeared in 1980, CSP has established its unique place as a meeting ground for research at the nexus of theory and policy. Spanning the gap between academic and policy approaches, CSP offers policy analysts a place to pursue fundamental issues, and academic writers a venue for addressing policy. Major fields of concern include: War and armed conflict Peacekeeping Conflict resolution Arms control and disarmament Defense policy Strategic culture International institutions. CSP is committed to a broad range of intellectual perspectives. Articles promote new analytical approaches, iconoclastic interpretations and previously overlooked perspectives. Its pages encourage novel contributions and outlooks, not particular methodologies or policy goals. Its geographical scope is worldwide and includes security challenges in Europe, Africa, the Middle-East and Asia. Authors are encouraged to examine established priorities in innovative ways and to apply traditional methods to new problems.
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