Tackling Drug-Lords in a Nascent Market: Raids and Drug Crime in Uruguay

Abstract

This article analyzes the effects of police raids for different types of crime in the most conflictive neighborhoods of Montevideo, Uruguay. Interrupted time-series and intervention models are estimated using different specifications of geographical area where the crackdowns occurred and also different control strategies to produce robust results. The effect of crackdowns on crime reporting is mixed; evidence suggesting crackdowns may produce short- and long-term effects on crime depending on their ability to affect gangs’ competition for the territory and the market. It appears that the effects of raids are sensitive to the context of the criminal situation. Crackdowns are not consistently effective in influencing crime. Evidence shows it is hard to reach levels of critical enforcement through 1-day crackdowns and that crackdowns’ ability to alter drug-market conditions would depend not only on the ability to extract drug dealers from the territory but also in preventing a rapid return.