Identifying key parameters impacting cost in large‐scale complex space programs using simulation‐based global sensitivity analysis

IF 1.6 3区工程技术 Q4 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL

Systems Engineering Pub Date : 2023-01-16 DOI:10.1002/sys.21656

N. S. Basha, Leifur Þ. Leifsson, C. Bloebaum

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Cost overruns averaging 45%–50% can occur during the acquisition process of large‐scale complex space programs. The factors that impact the cost overrun are frequently misunderstood and are not identified correctly. This paper investigates the impact of the parameters on the overall cost of a geosynchronous communication satellite program using model‐based global sensitivity analysis. A simulation model with the acquisition data was used to identify the key parameters within the system model that interact with the cost of the program. A system simulation model containing a physics‐based satellite model and a parametric cost model is utilized to conduct variance‐based sensitivity analysis. Data from selected acquisition reports are used to validate the system simulation model. Sobol' analysis is performed on the parameters associated with requirements of the satellite system, operations, and support to maintain the system, including the launch system and ground equipment. The results show that parameters related to the system‐based requirements significantly impact the program cost. These critical parameters, which influence the cost, lay the foundation to quantify the impact of system parameters and their uncertainty on the cost of the system using a simulation‐based model which will aid in the reduction of cost overruns during the design and development of future large‐scale complex engineered systems.

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使用基于模拟的全局灵敏度分析确定影响大型复杂空间项目成本的关键参数

在大型复杂空间项目的采办过程中，平均成本超支45%-50%。影响成本超支的因素经常被误解，并且没有正确识别。本文利用基于模型的全局灵敏度分析研究了参数对地球同步通信卫星项目总成本的影响。使用采集数据的仿真模型来确定系统模型中与项目成本相互作用的关键参数。利用包含基于物理的卫星模型和参数成本模型的系统仿真模型进行基于方差的灵敏度分析。来自选定的采集报告的数据用于验证系统仿真模型。Sobol的分析是对与卫星系统、操作和维护系统(包括发射系统和地面设备)相关的参数进行的。结果表明，与基于系统的需求相关的参数对项目成本有显著影响。这些影响成本的关键参数为使用基于仿真的模型量化系统参数及其不确定性对系统成本的影响奠定了基础，这将有助于在未来大型复杂工程系统的设计和开发过程中减少成本超支。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Systems Engineering 工程技术-工程：工业

CiteScore

5.10

自引率

20.00%

发文量

审稿时长

6 months

期刊介绍： Systems Engineering is a discipline whose responsibility it is to create and operate technologically enabled systems that satisfy stakeholder needs throughout their life cycle. Systems engineers reduce ambiguity by clearly defining stakeholder needs and customer requirements, they focus creativity by developing a system’s architecture and design and they manage the system’s complexity over time. Considerations taken into account by systems engineers include, among others, quality, cost and schedule, risk and opportunity under uncertainty, manufacturing and realization, performance and safety during operations, training and support, as well as disposal and recycling at the end of life. The journal welcomes original submissions in the field of Systems Engineering as defined above, but also encourages contributions that take an even broader perspective including the design and operation of systems-of-systems, the application of Systems Engineering to enterprises and complex socio-technical systems, the identification, selection and development of systems engineers as well as the evolution of systems and systems-of-systems over their entire lifecycle. Systems Engineering integrates all the disciplines and specialty groups into a coordinated team effort forming a structured development process that proceeds from concept to realization to operation. Increasingly important topics in Systems Engineering include the role of executable languages and models of systems, the concurrent use of physical and virtual prototyping, as well as the deployment of agile processes. Systems Engineering considers both the business and the technical needs of all stakeholders with the goal of providing a quality product that meets the user needs. Systems Engineering may be applied not only to products and services in the private sector but also to public infrastructures and socio-technical systems whose precise boundaries are often challenging to define.