Epidemiological modelling in infectious diseases: stages and classification

Abstract

Modelling in infectious diseases has recently been an important field due to avian influenza, swine influenza, severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), Middle East respiratory syndrome-coronavirus (MERS-CoV), novel coronavirus (nCoV) and many other diseases. Epidemiological models are usually defined as mathematical and/or logical demonstrations of epidemiology of diseases and the related process. Concerning animal disease management, ‘models’ can be defined more widely in that they contain a range of statistical/mathematical tools regarding other aspects of the disease in addition to its spreading. Modelling might be useful when experimental or field studies are impossible or not practical or in retrospective analyzing of previous epidemics in order to search alternative control strategies. The aim of this study was to examine some of the modelling methods and determine what mathematical modelling meant in infectious diseases, its purpose of use, to classify the steps followed during modelling period and models used in the field of animal health.