The Relationship Between the Popularity of Cryptocurrencies and their Prices, Returns and Trading Volumes: A Structural Break and Comparative Analysis

Abstract

In this study, the relationship between the popularity of cryptocurrencies and their price, return and trading volumes are examined through time series analysis. The popularity variable is determined according the frequency of cryptocurrencies being searched on the internet. Stationarity of series is examined by Vogelsang and Perron (1998) structural breaks ADF unit root test. According to the test results, all series are found to be stationary at level values. VAR analyses and impulse-response functions are performed to reveal dynamic interaction between the series. According to impulse - response test results, returns of BITCOIN decreased against a decreasing shock in the number searches on the internet and its price and trading volume followed a fluctuating course. In order to see the causality relationship between variables the Granger causality test is conducted. Regression analyses are performed using ordinary least squares (OLS) method through three different equations. According to the result of the regression analysis, an increase in the number of internet searches for cryptocurrencies was found to positively affect prices, returns and trading volumes of all cryptocurrencies. The highest impact on prices and trading volume is observed in BITCOIN, while the highest effect on returns is observed in LITECOIN. According to the findings, popularity can be considered an important determinant for price, returns and trading volumes of cryptocurrencies.