Disaggregating religiously motivated terrorism: ideology as a frame for strategic behaviour in Islamist and Christian fundamentalist terrorism

Abstract

ABSTRACT Scholars consistently suggest that religiously motivated terrorist groups are more violent and more lethal. This necessarily drives questions about how religious ideology is connected to outcomes of terrorist group behaviour. This study examines how variations in religious ideology may influence strategic choices like target selection, tactic adoption, and the lethality of attacks. Terrorism motivated by Islamism and Christian fundamentalism are examined theoretically and empirically in a framework that allows for comparison across the groups within the same analysis. Though our results support existing claims that religiously motivated terrorism is more likely to target civilians, we find inter-religious differences in tactic adoption and secondary target selection. Finally, while we do find evidence that Islamist terrorism is likely more lethal than secular terrorism, Christian fundamentalist terrorism yields a higher expected casualty rate per attack when compared within the same model.