The Mid-Term Forecast Method of F10.7 Based on Extreme Ultraviolet Images

IF 1.6 4区物理与天体物理 Q3 ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS

Advances in Astronomy Pub Date : 2019-05-13 DOI:10.1155/2019/5604092

L. Lei, Q. Zhong, J. Wang, L. Shi, S. Liu

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引用次数: 5

Abstract

The solar radio flux at 10.7cm (F10.7) is a direct monitor and an important indicator of solar variability, and F10.7 is commonly used in empirical atmospheric models, ionosphere models, etc. The source regions of F10.7 are mainly in the corona above the active regions, and the extreme ultraviolet (EUV) images reflect the coronal thermal structure. In this paper, an index is defined as PSR based on the intensity values of solar EUV images to represent the coronal contribution to F10.7. The Spearman correlation coefficient between the observed values of F10.7 and PSR is 0.85 in 304 Å EUV images. Based on the high correlation, an empirical model is constructed. Combining the EUV data of SDO/AIA and the twin STEREO/EUVI, solar full-disk EUV images can be generated, and the future 27-day values of PSR can be calculated. Then, a realistic estimation of F10.7 from 1 to 27 days in advance can be provided by the empirical model. Compared to the predictive values of F10.7 by the 54th-order autoregressive models in 2012-2013, the error drop-rate of our model is 12.54%, and our method has significant advantages in the upcoming 3 to 27 days’ forecast.

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基于极紫外图像的F10.7中期预报方法

10.7cm（F10.7）的太阳射电通量是太阳变率的直接监测器和重要指标，F10.7常用于经验大气模型、电离层模型等。F10.7的源区主要在活动区上方的日冕中，极紫外（EUV）图像反映了日冕的热结构。在本文中，基于太阳EUV图像的强度值，将一个指数定义为PSR，以表示日冕对F10.7的贡献。在304ÅEUV图像中，F10.7和PSR的观测值之间的Spearman相关系数为0.85。基于高相关性，构建了一个经验模型。结合SDO/AIA和STEREO/EUVI的EUV数据，可以生成太阳全盘EUV图像，并可以计算未来27天的PSR值。然后，经验模型可以提前1-27天提供F10.7的实际估计。与2012-2013年54阶自回归模型对F10.7的预测值相比，我们的模型的误差下降率为12.54%，并且我们的方法在即将到来的3到27天的预测中具有显著的优势。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Advances in Astronomy ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS-

CiteScore

2.70

自引率

7.10%

发文量

审稿时长

22 weeks

期刊介绍： Advances in Astronomy publishes articles in all areas of astronomy, astrophysics, and cosmology. The journal accepts both observational and theoretical investigations into celestial objects and the wider universe, as well as the reports of new methods and instrumentation for their study.