Sales estimations in the book industry – comparing management predictions with market response models in the children’s book market

Abstract

ABSTRACT Estimating the demand of books is an important business-planning task for publishing companies. This study identifies, quantifies, and generalizes the sales drivers of children’s and young adult literature books and investigates whether quantitative prediction models improve prerelease sales predictions. We compare the model-based predictions with prerelease management sales predictions of a subsample provided by a large German publisher. Based on a sample of 542 titles that were published in Germany, we examine (a) the relevant drivers (elasticities) for economic success and (b) analyze the prediction performance of the models using two specifications of multiplicative market response models for this highly relevant market. The quantitative model approach outperforms management heuristics, reducing the prediction error by up to 45%. We further highlight the practical feasibility of simple market response models.