Disentangling demand and supply shocks in the shipping freight market: their impact on shipping investments

IF 3.7 3区工程技术 Q2 TRANSPORTATION

Maritime Policy & Management Pub Date : 2022-01-03 DOI:10.1080/03088839.2021.2017041

N. Nomikos, Dimitris A. Tsouknidis

引用次数: 5

Abstract

ABSTRACT We show that demand shocks have a greater effect on real freight rates compared to supply (fleet) shocks both historically and on impact. By contrast, supply shocks have a larger impact on net contracting activity when compared to demand shocks. This paper disentangles for the first time demand and supply shocks driving shipping freight markets and assesses their impact on net contracting activity, a key measure of shipping investments. In the process, we construct novel indices of demand for shipping transportation. Policy-related issues are quantified through drawing forecast scenarios for the response of real freight rates to unexpected demand and supply changes. (R41), (E32).

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航运货运市场的供需冲击及其对航运投资的影响

摘要我们发现，与供应（车队）冲击相比，需求冲击对实际运费的影响更大，无论是在历史上还是在影响上。相比之下，与需求冲击相比，供应冲击对净收缩活动的影响更大。本文首次理清了驱动航运货运市场的需求和供应冲击，并评估了它们对净承包活动的影响，净承包活动是衡量航运投资的关键指标。在此过程中，我们构建了新的航运需求指数。通过绘制实际运费对意外需求和供应变化的反应预测情景，对政策相关问题进行量化。（R41）、（E32）。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Maritime Policy & Management TRANSPORTATION-

CiteScore

8.20

自引率

8.60%

发文量

期刊介绍： Thirty years ago maritime management decisions were taken on the basis of experience and hunch. Today, the experience is augmented by expert analysis and informed by research findings. Maritime Policy & Management provides the latest findings and analyses, and the opportunity for exchanging views through its Comment Section. A multi-disciplinary and international refereed journal, it brings together papers on the different topics that concern the maritime industry. Emphasis is placed on business, organizational, economic, sociolegal and management topics at port, community, shipping company and shipboard levels. The Journal also provides details of conferences and book reviews.