Nonparametric asymptotic confidence intervals for extreme quantiles

Abstract

In this paper, we propose new asymptotic confidence intervals for extreme quantiles, that is, for quantiles located outside the range of the available data. We restrict ourselves to the situation where the underlying distribution is heavy‐tailed. While asymptotic confidence intervals are mostly constructed around a pivotal quantity, we consider here an alternative approach based on the distribution of order statistics sampled from a uniform distribution. The convergence of the coverage probability to the nominal one is established under a classical second‐order condition. The finite sample behavior is also examined and our methodology is applied to a real dataset.