A Bayesian analysis of national heavy metal subgenre prevalence in northern Europe and the West

Abstract

Heavy metal ethnography and historiography has been extensively explored from a qualitative perspective. However, quantitative methods of analysis have not been developed. We conduct a Bayesian geographical analysis of heavy metal subgenres, investigating the relative prevalence of each subgenre in nations (for 86 countries in northern Europe and the West), and the overall popularity, according to the selected countries. Data from two different websites, MetalStorm and Encyclopaedia Metallum, were harvested via web ‘scraping’ and used for analysis. Results for Norway and Sweden in particular clearly agree with the qualitative historical documentation, while Germany surprisingly favoured black metal above Gothic.