Current Demographic Conditions and Future Scenarios in Mexico´s Coastal Zone

Journal of Integrated Coastal Zone Management Pub Date : 2019-07-31 DOI:10.5894/RGCI-N216

I. Azuz-adeath, E. Rivera-Arriaga, Humberto Alonso-Peinado

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引用次数: 10

Abstract

Knowing the behavior of population dynamics in coastal areas is an essential element for its proper management. Using historical information, in this paper, estimates of the total population in the coastal states of Mexico are made up to the year 2050 with an analysis of the population dynamics in the coastal municipalities for the years 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2015. According to the latest census, Mexican total population reached 102 million people in 2015 with 55,3 million (46 %) living in coastal states. In the 17 coastal states of Mexico, a total of 158 municipalities with direct access to the sea were identified in 2015, in which 18,9 million inhabitants lived. During the period 2010 to 2015 the highest relative population growth rate at state level was observed in Quintana Roo (13.3%). In 2015, the coastal municipality of Tijuana in Baja California State was the most populated in the coastal zone with 1,6 million inhabitants. In 15 years (2000-2015), 4 municipalities have increased their population by 100% or more, prevailing in these localities activities related with international tourism. The coastal population growth rate for the period 2010-2015 showed a deceleration compared to 2005-2010. By the year 2050, a population of 65 million people living in the coastal states of Mexico was estimated. The results presented in this study give elements to the decision makers to strengthen the planning and management processes of the Mexican coastal zone in the medium term.

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墨西哥海岸带的当前人口状况和未来情景

了解沿海地区人口动态的行为是对其进行适当管理的基本要素。本文利用历史信息，通过分析2000年、2005年、2010年和2015年墨西哥沿海城市的人口动态，对截至2050年墨西哥沿海各州的总人口进行了估计。根据最新人口普查，2015年墨西哥总人口达到1.02亿，其中5530万（46%）生活在沿海各州。在墨西哥的17个沿海州，2015年共确定了158个可以直接出海的市镇，其中居住着1890万居民。2010年至2015年期间，金塔纳罗奥州的相对人口增长率最高（13.3%）。2015年，下加利福尼亚州的蒂华纳市是沿海地区人口最多的城市，有160万居民。在15年（2000-2015年）内，有4个市镇的人口增长了100%或以上，这在这些地方与国际旅游业相关的活动中占主导地位。2010-2015年期间沿海人口增长率与2005-2010年相比有所下降。到2050年，估计墨西哥沿海各州有6500万人口。本研究的结果为决策者在中期内加强墨西哥沿海地区的规划和管理过程提供了要素。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of Integrated Coastal Zone Management Environmental Science-Water Science and Technology

CiteScore

2.00

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： Journal of Integrated Coastal Zone Management / Revista de Gestão Costeira Integrada is a peer-reviewed international journal that publishes articles dealing with all the subjects related to coastal zones and their management, namely focused on coastal oceanography (physical, geological, chemical, biological), engineering, economy, sedimentology, sociology, ecology, history, pollution, laws, biology, anthropology, chemistry, politics, etc. Published papers present results from both fundamental as well as applied, or directed research. Emphasis is given to results on interdisciplinary contributions, on management tools and techniques, on innovative methodological or technical developments, on items with wide general applicability, and on local or regional experiments that can be a source of inspirations to other regions. Journal of Integrated Coastal Zone Management is focused on coastal environments what means that embraces a wide area that extends from an indefinite distance inland to an indefinite limit seaward. Paleoenvironments, ancient shorelines, historical occupation, diachronically analysis and legislation evolution are some subjects considered to fall within the purview of the journal as well.