Alliance Vulnerability and its Remedies: Tracing the Abandonment of Kurds and South Korea Under the Trump Administration

Abstract

Alliances serve as a security guarantor but this is not always the case in the sense that allies struggle with the of abandonment and entrapment. The U.S. abandoned its local ally in northern Syria, the Kurds, by withdrawing its soldiers in October 2019, allowing the Turkish military to bomb them. An asymmetric partner vows to ally with a strong partner even in a situation where the former is aware of the latter’s potential betrayal. This bond can only result in tragedy. Which condition makes abandonment and/or entrapment more likely? Two key variables serve as the mechanism for alliances between actors-power parity and the nature of the bond, both of which lead to four different outcomes. A symmetric and institutionalized alliance is the most stable and thus, least likely to result in abandonment and entrapment. By contrast, an asymmetric and non-institutionalized alliance is likely to be the most tragic. This analysis offers insight into political and policy implications. In particular, the lessons learned from the U.S.’s abandonment of the Kurds might help provide the Republic of Korea (ROK) to avoid this tragic step a scenario they experienced once before in 1950 shortly before the outbreak of the Korean War.