The Predictive Potential of Elevated Serum Inflammatory Markers in Determining the Need for Intubation in CoVID-19 Patients

Abstract

Abstract Introduction The predictive potential of demographics, clinical characteristics, and inflammatory markers at admission to determine future intubation needs of hospitalised CoVID-19 patients is unknown. The study aimed to determine the predictive potential of elevated serum inflammatory markers in determining the need for intubation in CoVID-19 Patients. Methods In a retrospective cohort study of hospitalised SARS-CoV2 positive patients, single and multivariable regression analyses were used to determine covariate effects on intubation odds, and a minimax concave penalty regularised logistic regression was used to build a predictive model. A second prospective independent cohort tested the model. Results Systemic inflammatory markers obtained at admission were higher in patients that required subsequent intubation, and adjusted odds of intubation increased for every standard deviation above the mean for c-reactive protein (CRP) OR:2.8 (95% CI 1.8-4.5, p<0.001) and lactate dehydrogenase OR:2.1 (95% CI 1.33.3, p=0.002). A predictive model incorporating C-reactive protein, lactate dehydrogenase, and diabetes status at the time of admission predicted intubation status with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.78 with corresponding sensitivity of 86%, specificity of 63%. This predictive model achieved an AUC of 0.83, 91% sensitivity, and 41% specificity on the validation cohort. Conclusion In patients hospitalised with CoVID-19, elevated serum inflammatory markers measured within the first twenty-four hours of admission are associated with an increased need for intubation. Additionally, a model of C-reactive protein, lactate dehydrogenase, and the presence of diabetes may play a predictive role in determining the future need for intubation.