Global sensitivity-based modelling approach to identify suitable Eucalyptus traits for adaptation to climate variability and change

Abstract

Eucalyptus-breeding efforts have been made to identify clones of superior performance for growth and yield and how they will interact with global climate changes. This study performs a global sensitivity analysis for assessing the impact of genetic traits on Eucalyptus yield across contrasting environments in Brazil under present and future climate scenarios. The APSIM Next Generation Eucalyptus model was used to perform the simulations of stemwood biomass (t ha−1) for 7-year rotations across 23 locations in Brazil. Projections for the period from 2020 to 2049 using three global circulation models under intermediate (RCP4.5) and high (RCP8.5) greenhouse gas emission scenarios were performed. The Morris sensitivity method was used to perform a global sensitivity analysis to identify the influence of plant traits on stemwood biomass. Traits for radiation use efficiency, leaf partitioning, canopy light capture and fine root partitioning were the most important, impacting the Eucalyptus yield substantially in all environments under the present climate. Some of the traits targeted now by breeders for current climate will remain important under future climates. However, breeding should place a greater emphasis on photosynthetic temperature response for Eucalyptus in some regions. Global sensitivity analysis was found to be a powerful tool for identifying suitable Eucalyptus traits for adaptation to climate variability and change. This approach can improve breeding strategies by better understanding the gene × environment interactions for forest productivity.