Forecasting Japanese inflation with a news-based leading indicator of economic activities

IF 0.7 4区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics Pub Date : 2020-09-18 DOI:10.1515/SNDE-2019-0117

Keiichi Goshima, H. Ishijima, M. Shintani, Hiroki Yamamoto

引用次数: 2

Abstract

Abstract We construct business cycle indexes based on the daily Japanese newspaper articles and estimate the Phillips curve model to forecast inflation at a daily frequency. We find that the news-based leading indicator, constructed from the topic on future economic conditions, is useful in forecasting the inflation rate in Japan.

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基于新闻的经济活动领先指标预测日本通胀

摘要我们根据日本日报文章构建了商业周期指数，并估计了菲利普斯曲线模型来预测日频率的通货膨胀。我们发现，以未来经济状况为主题构建的基于新闻的领先指标在预测日本通货膨胀率方面是有用的。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics Multiple-

CiteScore

1.40

自引率

12.50%

发文量

期刊介绍： Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics (SNDE) recognizes that advances in statistics and dynamical systems theory may increase our understanding of economic and financial markets. The journal seeks both theoretical and applied papers that characterize and motivate nonlinear phenomena. Researchers are required to assist replication of empirical results by providing copies of data and programs online. Algorithms and rapid communications are also published.