Influence of systemic banking crisis and currency crisis on the relationship of export and economic growth

IF 1.1 Q3 ECONOMICS

Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies Pub Date : 2017-01-27 DOI:10.1108/JCEFTS-04-2016-0012

S. Raza, M. Karim

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引用次数: 4

Abstract

Purpose - This study investigates the influence of systemic banking crises, currency crises and global financial crisis on the relationship of export and economic growth in China by using the annual time series data from the period of 1972 to 2014. Design/methodology/approach - The J. J. cointegration, ARDL bound testing cointegration approach and Gregory and Hansen (1996)’s cointegration approach with structural break confirm the valid long run relationship between considered variables. Findings - Results indicate the positive and significant effect of export of goods and services on economic growth in both long and short run. Whereas, the negative influence of systemic banking crises and currency crises over economic growth is observed. It is also concluded that the impact of export of goods and service on economic growth become insignificant in the presence of systemic banking crises and currency crises. The currency crises comparatively more effects the influence of export on economic growth as compare to systemic banking crises. Surprisingly, the export in the period of global financial crises have a positive and significant influence over economic growth in China, which conclude that the global financial crises did not drastically affect the export-growth nexus. Originality/value - This paper makes a unique contribution to the literature with reference to China, being a pioneering attempt to investigate the effects of systemic banking crises and currency crises on the relationship of export and economic growth by using long time series data and applying more rigorous techniques.

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系统性银行危机和货币危机对出口与经济增长关系的影响

本研究利用1972 - 2014年的年度时间序列数据，考察系统性银行危机、货币危机和全球金融危机对中国出口与经济增长关系的影响。设计/方法/方法——j.j.协整、ARDL约束检验协整方法和Gregory和Hansen(1996)的结构断裂协整方法证实了所考虑的变量之间有效的长期关系。研究结果-结果表明，商品和服务出口对经济增长的长期和短期的积极和显著的影响。然而，观察到系统性银行危机和货币危机对经济增长的负面影响。本文还得出结论，在存在系统性银行危机和货币危机时，商品和服务出口对经济增长的影响变得微不足道。与系统性银行危机相比，货币危机对出口对经济增长的影响相对更大。令人惊讶的是，全球金融危机时期的出口对中国经济增长有积极而显著的影响，这表明全球金融危机并未严重影响出口增长关系。原创性/价值-本文对参考中国的文献做出了独特的贡献，通过使用长时间序列数据和应用更严格的技术，开创性地尝试调查系统性银行危机和货币危机对出口和经济增长关系的影响。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

3.40

自引率

4.20%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies (JCEFTS) negotiates China''s unique position within the international economy, and its interaction across the globe. From a truly international perspective, the journal publishes both qualitative and quantitative research in all areas of Chinese business and foreign trade, technical economics, business environment and business strategy. JCEFTS publishes high quality research papers, viewpoints, conceptual papers, case studies, literature reviews and general views. Emphasis is placed on the publication of articles which seek to link theory with application, or critically analyse real situations in terms of Chinese economics and business in China, with the objective of identifying good practice in these areas and assisting in the development of more appropriate arrangements for addressing crucial issues of Chinese economics and business. Papers accepted for publication will be double–blind peer-reviewed to ensure academic rigour and integrity.