SIMPLE BAYESIAN FORECAST COMBINATION

Abstract

In this paper, it is proposed to combine the forecasts using a simple Bayesian forecast combination algorithm The algorithm is applied to forecasts from three non-nested diffusion models for S shaped processes like virus diffusion An illustration to daily data on first-wave cumulative Covid-19 cases in the Netherlands shows the ease of use of the algorithm and the accuracy of the newly combined forecasts © 2020 World Scientific Publishing Company