Pushing on an Open Door: Japan’s Evolutionary Security Posture

Abstract

At the 2022 Shangri-La Dialogue, Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida warned defense ministers from across the Indo-Pacific region that “Ukraine today may be East Asia tomorrow.” Russia’s war of aggression and China’s tacit support for the invasion have amplified the urgency of the threat posed by China’s economic and military rise and have informed material changes to Japanese defense policy. Though Japan is acting with new urgency, its actions reflect longstanding—but not uncontested—goals of conservative Japanese politicians, Ministry of Defense (MOD) bureaucrats, and alliance managers. Decades before the Ukraine War, Japanese strategists began working to supplant the economics-first “Yoshida Doctrine” (named after Shigeru Yoshida, Japan’s influential early postwar prime minister) with a form of military realism now being called the “Abe Doctrine” (named after Shinzō Abe, Japan’s longest serving prime minister, who left office in 2020).