Development and validation of a nomogram prediction model for the risk of parastomal hernia

Abstract

Background

Parastomal hernia is one of the potential complications after enterostomy. There is currently no early risk assessment tool for parastomal hernia.

Methods

The current investigation was conducted using retrospective studies. A total of 302 cases were used develop and internally to validate a nomogram prediction model, and 67 cases were used for external validation. Independent risk factors for parastomal hernia after permanent sigmoid colostomy were assessed via univariate analysis and binary logistic regression analysis. The nomogram prediction model was established based on independent risk factors.

Results

Body mass index, serum albumin, age, sex, and stoma diameter were independent risk factors for parastomal hernia. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves were 0.909 in the development group and 0.801 in the validation group. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test (P > 0.05) and calibration curves indicated good consistency between actual observations and predicted probabilities.

Conclusions

A nomogram prediction model was constructed and validated based on risk factors for parastomal hernia. The nomogram could be generalized to patients undergoing surgery for stoma by specialized surgeons to provide relevant references for stoma patients.