Using input–output models to estimate sectoral effects of carbon tax policy: Applications of the NGFS scenarios

IF 0.9 4区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

American Journal of Economics and Sociology Pub Date : 2023-02-20 DOI:10.1111/ajes.12503

David Kay, G. Jason Jolley

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引用次数: 1

Abstract

The Network of Central Banks and Supervisors for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) has engaged in scenario analysis that estimates a $200/ton carbon tax would be required to transition to net zero carbon by 2050. Using a $200/ton carbon tax as a base, this paper uses input–output (IO) modeling to generate price and revenue effects of a carbon tax. Results from these models, which can only be interpreted as the short-run, upper-bound effects of the carbon tax policy, imply that in response to a $200/ton tax on CO₂e emissions, carbon-intensive industries, such as agriculture, extraction, transportation, utilities, and chemicals, may experience price increases in the range of 10-30 percent. Other industries will also experience price increases, but to a lesser degree, due to increased input costs associated with the tax. In addition, modeling results also suggest that industries facing elastic pricing regimes may face similar-sized declines in revenues as a consequence of the carbon tax. Rank-ordered impact results from these models can be utilized by bank supervisors and firms to adequately plan for sectoral-level transition risk within their lending and/or investment portfolios.

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使用投入产出模型估计碳税政策的部门影响：NGFS情景的应用

中央银行和绿色金融系统监管机构网络(NGFS)进行了情景分析，估计到2050年实现净零碳排放需要征收200美元/吨的碳税。本文以200美元/吨的碳税为基准，运用投入产出模型来计算碳税的价格和收入效应。这些模型的结果只能被解释为碳税政策的短期上限效应，这意味着对二氧化碳排放征收200美元/吨的税，农业、采掘、运输、公用事业和化工等碳密集型行业的价格可能会上涨10- 30%。其他行业也将经历价格上涨，但程度较轻，原因是与税收相关的投入成本增加。此外，建模结果还表明，由于征收碳税，面临弹性定价制度的行业可能面临类似规模的收入下降。银行监管者和公司可以利用这些模型的排序影响结果来充分规划其贷款和/或投资组合中的部门级转型风险。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

American Journal of Economics and Sociology Multiple-

CiteScore

1.90

自引率

12.50%

发文量

期刊介绍： The American Journal of Economics and Sociology (AJES) was founded in 1941, with support from the Robert Schalkenbach Foundation, to encourage the development of transdisciplinary solutions to social problems. In the introduction to the first issue, John Dewey observed that “the hostile state of the world and the intellectual division that has been built up in so-called ‘social science,’ are … reflections and expressions of the same fundamental causes.” Dewey commended this journal for its intention to promote “synthesis in the social field.” Dewey wrote those words almost six decades after the social science associations split off from the American Historical Association in pursuit of value-free knowledge derived from specialized disciplines. Since he wrote them, academic or disciplinary specialization has become even more pronounced. Multi-disciplinary work is superficially extolled in major universities, but practices and incentives still favor highly specialized work. The result is that academia has become a bastion of analytic excellence, breaking phenomena into components for intensive investigation, but it contributes little synthetic or holistic understanding that can aid society in finding solutions to contemporary problems. Analytic work remains important, but in response to the current lop-sided emphasis on specialization, the board of AJES has decided to return to its roots by emphasizing a more integrated and practical approach to knowledge.