The Economic Impacts of Air Safety Rating Downgrade for Malaysia

IF 0.5 Q4 ECONOMICS

Malaysian Journal of Economic Studies Pub Date : 2021-06-02 DOI:10.22452/MJES.VOL58NO1.2

T. Sarmidi, Nurul Aishah Khairuddin, M. R. K. V. Zainuddin

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Abstract

In 2019, the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) downgraded the Civil Aviation Authority of Malaysia (CAAM) from tier one to tier two. Existing research has revealed that downgrading air safety ratings has a detrimental effect on the aviation sector. Although extensive research has been carried out on air safety downgrading, limited studies have delved into the backward and forward linkages and inter-industries framework. By employing a difference-in-differences (DID) panel data econometric and input-output (I-O) analysis to a modified sectoral aggregation of Malaysia’s I-O Table 2015, this study is able to simulate the impact of air safety downgrading. The findings show that, apart from being a “key” industry, air safety downgrades could result in a RM722.5 million loss to Malaysia’s GDP. A more in-depth inspection of the results indicates that the reduction in GDP mainly results from the air transport industry (RM252.0 million), other transportation services (RM107.0 million), and wholesale and retail trade (RM66.2 million). The findings complement earlier related studies that air safety rating downgrades could be a severe threat to sustainable economic growth.

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马来西亚航空安全评级下调对经济的影响

2019年，美国联邦航空管理局(FAA)将马来西亚民航局(CAAM)的评级从一级下调至二级。现有研究表明，降低航空安全评级对航空业有不利影响。虽然对航空安全降级进行了广泛的研究，但对向后和向前联系以及行业间框架的研究有限。通过采用差异中的差异(DID)面板数据计量经济学和投入产出(I-O)分析，对2015年马来西亚I-O表的修改部门汇总进行分析，本研究能够模拟航空安全降级的影响。调查结果显示，除了作为一个“关键”行业，航空安全降级可能导致马来西亚国内生产总值损失7.225亿令吉。对结果进行更深入的检查表明，国内生产总值的减少主要来自航空运输业(2.52亿令吉)，其他运输服务(1.07亿令吉)以及批发和零售业(6620万令吉)。这些发现补充了早期的相关研究，即航空安全评级下调可能对可持续经济增长构成严重威胁。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Malaysian Journal of Economic Studies ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

1.30

自引率

25.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： The primary purpose of the journal is to promote publications of original research related to the Malaysian economy. It is also designed to serve as an outlet for studies on the South-east Asian countries and the Asian region. The journal also considers high-quality works related to other regions that provide relevant policy lessons to Malaysia. The journal is receptive to papers in all areas of economics. We encourage specifically contributions on all range of economic topics of an applied or policy nature. At the same time, submissions of methodological or theoretical studies with results that are of practical use are welcome. Works that are interdisciplinary will be considered provided that they contain substantial economic contents.