Nudging a Pseudo-Science Towards a Science—The Role of Statistics in a Rainfall Enhancement Trial in Oman

IF 16.4 1区化学 Q1 CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Accounts of Chemical Research Pub Date : 2022-02-02 DOI:10.1111/insr.12486

Ray Chambers, Stephen Beare, Scott Peak, Mohammed Al-Kalbani

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引用次数: 1

Abstract

Although cloud seeding is a commonly used and plausible method for rainfall enhancement, its practical efficacy has not been established for seeding of convective clouds with hygroscopic materials. Other methods of rainfall enhancement are viewed as much less plausible. Thus, although increased electrical charge has been shown to enhance precipitation in cloud chamber experiments, exactly how ionisation of clouds can increase rainfall in the open atmosphere remains conjectural. A trial of the efficacy of ionisation for rainfall enhancement in the Hajar Mountains of Oman was carried out over 2013–2018. This paper provides some background to this non-mainstream approach to increasing rainfall, showing how statistical modelling of rainfall data might be used to nudge rainfall enhancement via ionisation towards a more scientifically acceptable status. Analysis of the data collected in the trial shows that ionisation led to a statistically significant enhancement in positive rainfall in gauges located up to 70 km downwind of the ionisers. A headline analysis specified prior to commencement of the trial resulted in an estimate of 16.23% enhancement relative to rainfall that would have fallen without any ionisation, while a more sophisticated after the event analysis increased this estimate to 17.64%.

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将伪科学推向科学——统计在阿曼增雨试验中的作用

虽然人工降雨是一种常用和可行的增雨方法，但其实际效果尚未确定用吸湿材料播种对流云。其他增强降雨的方法被认为不太可信。因此，尽管在云室实验中已经证明电荷的增加可以增加降水，但是云的电离如何在开放大气中增加降雨仍然是推测性的。2013-2018年，在阿曼哈贾尔山脉进行了一项关于电离增强降雨效果的试验。本文为这种非主流的增加降雨方法提供了一些背景，展示了如何使用降雨数据的统计建模来通过电离推动降雨增强，使其达到更科学可接受的状态。对试验中收集的数据的分析表明，电离导致位于电离器下风70公里处的仪表的正降雨量在统计上显著增加。在试验开始前进行的一项标题分析得出，相对于没有任何电离作用的降雨量，估计增加了16.23%，而更复杂的事后分析将这一估计提高到17.64%。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Accounts of Chemical Research 化学-化学综合

CiteScore

31.40

自引率

1.10%

发文量

312

审稿时长

2 months

期刊介绍： Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance. Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.