Mangrove forests under climate change in a 2°C world

Abstract

The world's nations are committed to keeping global temperature rises to less than 2°C to avoid the worst impacts of climate change. Such a target is crucial for mangrove forests, because they are located primarily in tropical and subtropical regions that are expected to see large changes in climatic conditions; their intertidal location and sensitivity to changes in environmental conditions means that mangroves are expected to be on the front line of climate change impacts. We conceptualize what a 2°C world might look like for mangroves, and in particular the potential negative and positive responses of the mangrove ecosystem to anticipated changes in future atmospheric CO2 concentrations, temperature, sea level, cyclone activity, storminess and changes in the frequency, and magnitude of climatic oscillations. We also assess the spatial distribution of such stressors, their relative contributions to mangrove ecosystem dynamics, and discuss the challenges in attributing mangrove ecosystem dynamics to climate change versus other global change stressors. Such knowledge can help future‐proof conservation and restoration activities, improve the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's confidence level ascribed to climate change impacts on mangrove forests, and highlight the key temperature thresholds beyond which the future of the world's mangroves is less certain.