Multi-Objective optimization of the Hydrocarbon supply chain under price and demand uncertainty

IF 3.6 Q3 GREEN & SUSTAINABLE SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY
A. Attia, A. Ghaithan, S. Duffuaa
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

ABSTRACT The energy sector is known for its enormous investments, despite the erratic behaviour of the oil market (e.g. changes in crude oil prices). Therefore, strategic and tactical planning of the Hydrocarbon supply chain (HCSC), considering market uncertainty, is a significant area of research. HCSC construction involves the integration of crude oil and natural gas supply chains (SCs). In this study, a stochastic multi-objective optimization model is developed for the tactical planning of HCSC. The model considers price and demand uncertainty by formulating a two-stage stochastic programming model. Financial objectives are considered in terms of cost minimization and revenue maximization, while a non-financial objective is considered in terms of depletion rate minimization (i.e. reserves sustainability maximization). The model assists the decision-maker in quantifying the amount of production required to meet demand under different scenarios. Furthermore, the proposed model assists in evaluating the trade-offs among alternatives. A real-world HCSC is used to elucidate the practicability of the model, and some managerial insights are derived by conducting a sensitivity analysis. For instance, production can be reduced during high demand periods to maintain enough reserves, and the excess demand can be satisfied from the outside market based on medium-term contracts.
价格和需求不确定性下的油气供应链多目标优化
摘要尽管石油市场的行为不稳定(例如原油价格的变化),但能源行业以其巨大的投资而闻名。因此,考虑到市场的不确定性,碳氢化合物供应链的战略和战术规划是一个重要的研究领域。HCSC建设涉及原油和天然气供应链(SC)的整合。在本研究中,建立了一个用于HCSC战术规划的随机多目标优化模型。该模型通过建立两阶段随机规划模型来考虑价格和需求的不确定性。财务目标是根据成本最小化和收入最大化来考虑的,而非财务目标则是根据损耗率最小化(即储量可持续性最大化)来考虑的。该模型有助于决策者量化不同情景下满足需求所需的产量。此外,所提出的模型有助于评估备选方案之间的权衡。使用真实世界的HCSC来阐明该模型的实用性,并通过进行敏感性分析得出一些管理见解。例如,在高需求时期可以减少产量以保持足够的储量,而超额需求可以根据中期合同从外部市场得到满足。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
International Journal of Sustainable Engineering
International Journal of Sustainable Engineering GREEN & SUSTAINABLE SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY-
CiteScore
7.70
自引率
0.00%
发文量
19
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