Átropos: towards a risk prediction model for software project management

Q1 Multidisciplinary

International Journal of Agile Systems and Management Pub Date : 2020-08-20 DOI:10.1504/ijasm.2020.10031512

A. Filippetto, Robson Lima, J. Barbosa

引用次数: 5

Abstract

Deep changes have been taking place in business, brought about by increasing technological advancement and a constant digital transformation. Risk event management has become strategic in project management, where uncertainties are inevitable. In this sense, the use of concepts of ubiquitous computing, such as contexts, context histories, and mobile computing can assist in proactive project management. This paper proposes a computational model to the reduction of the probability of project failure through the prediction of risks. The aim of the study is showing a model to assist teams to identify and monitor risks at different points in the life cycle of projects. This research was conducting a case study containing five projects in execution to evaluate the risk recommendations. For history, a database with 153 projects was used for a financial company. The recommendations were evaluated by a project team composed of 9 professionals, obtaining a result of 72% acceptance.

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Átropos：面向软件项目管理的风险预测模型

随着技术进步和数字化转型的不断推进，商业领域正在发生深刻的变化。在不确定性不可避免的项目管理中，风险事件管理已成为一种战略。从这个意义上说，使用无处不在的计算概念，例如上下文、上下文历史和移动计算，可以帮助进行前瞻性的项目管理。本文提出了一个通过风险预测来降低项目失败概率的计算模型。该研究的目的是展示一个模型，以帮助团队在项目生命周期的不同阶段识别和监控风险。这项研究正在进行一个案例研究，其中包括五个正在执行的项目，以评估风险建议。对于历史，一个金融公司使用了包含153个项目的数据库。这些建议由一个由9名专业人士组成的项目团队进行评估，获得了72%的接受率。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

International Journal of Agile Systems and Management Multidisciplinary-Multidisciplinary

CiteScore

2.70

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： The objective of IJASM is to establish an effective channel of communication between academia, industry and persons concerned with the design and development of systems. Change is eternal and perpetual, irrespective of type of system. Systems created in the course of the advance of human civilization need to be functionally and operationally sustainable amid changes in technological, political, socio-economical, financial, cultural and other environmental challenges. IJASM aims to promote and harmonize knowledge developments in the emerging fields of agile systems research, sustainability and vulnerability analysis, risk assessments methodologies, complex systems science, e-organisation and e-supply chain management, with emphasis on the international dimension, particularly breaking cultural barriers, and on national contexts, globalisation and new business practices. As such, we aim to publish papers presenting new research, innovative theoretical approaches, changes in agile management paradigms, and action (both examples of successes and failures as long as there are important lessons to be learned) from leading scholars and practitioners. Papers generally fall into two broad categories: those grounded in theory and/or papers using scientific research methods (e.g., reports of original empirical studies, models, critical reviews of existing empirical research, theory pieces that clearly extend current thinking); and those focusing on innovative agile approaches that are based on well reasoned extensions of existing research, experiential knowledge, or exemplary cases (e.g., thought pieces, case studies, etc).