The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act: Searching for Supply-Side Effects

IF 1.8 3区经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE

National Tax Journal Pub Date : 2021-11-12 DOI:10.1086/717132

W. Gale, Claire Haldeman

引用次数: 5

Abstract

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (TCJA) instituted the most substantial changes in taxation in decades and was designed to boost the economy via supply-side incentives. This paper reviews these changes and examines the impacts on economic aggregates through 2019. The act clearly reduced revenue. The effect on gross domestic product is difficult to tease out of the data. Investment growth rose after the TCJA was enacted, but it was driven by trends in aggregate demand, oil prices, and intellectual capital that were unrelated to the TCJA’s supply-side incentives. Growth in business formation, employment, and median wages slowed after the TCJA was enacted. International profit shifting fell only slightly, and the boost in repatriated profits primarily led to increased share repurchases rather than new investment.

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减税和就业法案:寻找供给侧效应

《2017年减税和就业法案》(TCJA)对税收进行了几十年来最重大的改革，旨在通过供给侧激励措施提振经济。本文回顾了这些变化，并考察了到2019年对经济总量的影响。该法案显然减少了税收。这对国内生产总值(gdp)的影响很难从数据中梳理出来。在TCJA颁布后，投资增长有所增加，但这是由总需求、油价和智力资本的趋势推动的，而这些与TCJA的供给侧激励无关。在TCJA颁布后，企业成立、就业和工资中位数的增长放缓。国际利润转移仅略有下降，汇回利润的增加主要导致了股票回购的增加，而不是新的投资。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

National Tax Journal Multiple-

CiteScore

3.40

自引率

11.80%

发文量

期刊介绍： The goal of the National Tax Journal (NTJ) is to encourage and disseminate high quality original research on governmental tax and expenditure policies. Articles published in the regular March, June and September issues of the journal, as well as articles accepted for publication in special issues of the journal, are subject to professional peer review and include economic, theoretical, and empirical analyses of tax and expenditure issues with an emphasis on policy implications. The NTJ has been published quarterly since 1948 under the auspices of the National Tax Association (NTA). Most issues include an NTJ Forum, which consists of invited papers by leading scholars that examine in depth a single current tax or expenditure policy issue. The December issue is devoted to publishing papers presented at the NTA’s annual Spring Symposium; the articles in the December issue generally are not subject to peer review.