Tigray: A Nation in Search of Statehood?

Abstract

A devastating war broke out between the federal government and Tigray regional state of Ethiopia in November 2020. What is its cause and how does it affect the dynamics in Tigray and in Ethiopia in general? The article demonstrates using clear indicators that an authoritarian centrist elite and its policy that came to power in 2018 pursued a very centralised decision making, removing regional state heads and imposed new polices that violate self-government and autonomy of states. It brought back imperial Ethiopia’s polity building narrative accusing its predecessors and the post-1991 federal polity as disruption. Yet Tigrayan nationalism has also long pedigree. Its relative homogeneity and centuries of self-conscious experiment with autonomy has always been fundamental check against the centrist elite. Following the new developments, Tigray is reconsidering whether it is worth staying within Ethiopia or should secede and have its own state. Ideally there are menu of options that could provide a solution to both sides short of secession, but the new elite in power is pushing Tigray to the edges, abrogating its constitutional autonomy, putting under siege and denying all basic services for nearly two years and pursuing age old policy of surrender or perish, literally imposing secession to the region. The study is informed by theories of ethno national based conflicts, political autonomy and secession.