M. Lila, Manuel Martín-Fernández, E. Gracia, J. J. López-Ossorio, J. González
{"title":"Identifying Key Predictors of Recidivism among Offenders Attending a Batterer Intervention Program: A Survival Analysis","authors":"M. Lila, Manuel Martín-Fernández, E. Gracia, J. J. López-Ossorio, J. González","doi":"10.5093/pi2019a19","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"espanolLas estrategias para reducir la violencia contra la mujer en las relaciones de pareja pueden dirigirse a diferentes objetivos. Los programas de intervencion para agresores de pareja son uno de los principales acercamientos para su tratamiento. El resultado mas utilizado para la evaluacion de la efectividad de estos programas es la reincidencia. Los esfuerzos para incrementar la efectividad de los programas de intervencion para agresores de pareja en reducir la reincidencia deberian centrarse en las variables predictoras clave de este resultado. El objetivo de este estudio fue identificar los predictores clave de la reincidencia oficial a partir de un amplio conjunto de variables obtenidas a partir de una muestra de hombres participando por mandato judicial en un programa de intervencion para agresores de pareja (N = 393), con un periodo de seguimiento de entre 0 y 69 meses. Con este objetivo, se realizo un analisis de supervivencia utilizando cuatro conjuntos de variables: variables individuales, variables relacionales y contextuales, variables relativas a la violencia y variables relativas al proceso de intervencion. Para incluir simultaneamente todas las variables en el analisis, se estimo un modelo de regresion de Cox utilizando ALASSO (adaptive least absolute shrinkage and selection operator). De un conjunto de ochenta y nueve variables, seis fueron seleccionadas como predictores clave: abandono del programa, riesgo de violencia futura contra otras personas, exposicion a violencia familiar, estatus de inmigrante, acumulacion de eventos vitales estresantes e ira rasgo. El area bajo la curva ROC (receiving operator characteristic) fue .808, indicando una buena prediccion del modelo. Los predictores clave de la reincidencia identificados en este estudio deberian ser considerados por los profesionales e investigadores en el ambito de la intervencion con agresores de pareja para mejorar sus estrategias de evaluacion e intervencion. Asimismo, se discuten las implicaciones practicas para futuras investigaciones. EnglishStrategies to reduce intimate partner violence against women (IPVAW) can be targeted at different levels. Batterer intervention programs (BIPs) are among the main treatment approaches for IPVAW offenders. The most common outcome used in the evaluation of BIP effectiveness is recidivism. Efforts to increase BIP effectiveness in reducing recidivism should focus on key predictive variables of this outcome. The aim of this study was to identify key predictors of official recidivism from a large set of variables drawn from a sample of IPVAW offenders court-mandated to a community-based BIP (N = 393), with a follow-up period of between 0 and 69 months. To this end, a survival analysis was conducted using four sets of variables: individual-level, relational- and contextual-level, violence-related, and intervention process-related variables. To include all variables in the analysis simultaneously, a Cox regression model was estimated with the adaptive least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (ALASSO). From a pool of eighty-nine variables, six were selected as key predictors of recidivism: dropout, risk of future violence against non-partners, family violence exposure, immigrant status, accumulation of stressful life events, and trait anger. The area under the receiving operator characteristic (ROC) curve was .808, indicating good prediction of the model. The key predictors of recidivism found in this study should be considered by professionals and researchers in the BIP field to improve their evaluation and intervention strategies. Practical implications for future research are also discussed.","PeriodicalId":51641,"journal":{"name":"Psychosocial Intervention","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.6000,"publicationDate":"2019-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"41","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Psychosocial Intervention","FirstCategoryId":"102","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.5093/pi2019a19","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"PSYCHOLOGY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 41
Abstract
espanolLas estrategias para reducir la violencia contra la mujer en las relaciones de pareja pueden dirigirse a diferentes objetivos. Los programas de intervencion para agresores de pareja son uno de los principales acercamientos para su tratamiento. El resultado mas utilizado para la evaluacion de la efectividad de estos programas es la reincidencia. Los esfuerzos para incrementar la efectividad de los programas de intervencion para agresores de pareja en reducir la reincidencia deberian centrarse en las variables predictoras clave de este resultado. El objetivo de este estudio fue identificar los predictores clave de la reincidencia oficial a partir de un amplio conjunto de variables obtenidas a partir de una muestra de hombres participando por mandato judicial en un programa de intervencion para agresores de pareja (N = 393), con un periodo de seguimiento de entre 0 y 69 meses. Con este objetivo, se realizo un analisis de supervivencia utilizando cuatro conjuntos de variables: variables individuales, variables relacionales y contextuales, variables relativas a la violencia y variables relativas al proceso de intervencion. Para incluir simultaneamente todas las variables en el analisis, se estimo un modelo de regresion de Cox utilizando ALASSO (adaptive least absolute shrinkage and selection operator). De un conjunto de ochenta y nueve variables, seis fueron seleccionadas como predictores clave: abandono del programa, riesgo de violencia futura contra otras personas, exposicion a violencia familiar, estatus de inmigrante, acumulacion de eventos vitales estresantes e ira rasgo. El area bajo la curva ROC (receiving operator characteristic) fue .808, indicando una buena prediccion del modelo. Los predictores clave de la reincidencia identificados en este estudio deberian ser considerados por los profesionales e investigadores en el ambito de la intervencion con agresores de pareja para mejorar sus estrategias de evaluacion e intervencion. Asimismo, se discuten las implicaciones practicas para futuras investigaciones. EnglishStrategies to reduce intimate partner violence against women (IPVAW) can be targeted at different levels. Batterer intervention programs (BIPs) are among the main treatment approaches for IPVAW offenders. The most common outcome used in the evaluation of BIP effectiveness is recidivism. Efforts to increase BIP effectiveness in reducing recidivism should focus on key predictive variables of this outcome. The aim of this study was to identify key predictors of official recidivism from a large set of variables drawn from a sample of IPVAW offenders court-mandated to a community-based BIP (N = 393), with a follow-up period of between 0 and 69 months. To this end, a survival analysis was conducted using four sets of variables: individual-level, relational- and contextual-level, violence-related, and intervention process-related variables. To include all variables in the analysis simultaneously, a Cox regression model was estimated with the adaptive least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (ALASSO). From a pool of eighty-nine variables, six were selected as key predictors of recidivism: dropout, risk of future violence against non-partners, family violence exposure, immigrant status, accumulation of stressful life events, and trait anger. The area under the receiving operator characteristic (ROC) curve was .808, indicating good prediction of the model. The key predictors of recidivism found in this study should be considered by professionals and researchers in the BIP field to improve their evaluation and intervention strategies. Practical implications for future research are also discussed.
期刊介绍:
Psychosocial Intervention is a peer-reviewed journal that publishes papers in all areas relevant to psychosocial intervention at the individual, family, social networks, organization, community, and population levels. The Journal emphasizes an evidence-based perspective and welcomes papers reporting original basic and applied research, program evaluation, and intervention results. The journal will also feature integrative reviews, and specialized papers on theoretical advances and methodological issues. Psychosocial Intervention is committed to advance knowledge, and to provide scientific evidence informing psychosocial interventions tackling social and community problems, and promoting social welfare and quality of life. Psychosocial Intervention welcomes contributions from all areas of psychology and allied disciplines, such as sociology, social work, social epidemiology, and public health. Psychosocial Intervention aims to be international in scope, and will publish papers both in Spanish and English.