Modelling the Impacts of the Changing Climate on Streamflow in Didesa Catchment, Abay Basin, Ethiopia

IF 2.1 4区 地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
Amsalu Gudeta Awetu, T. Kenea
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引用次数: 1

Abstract

The Didesa catchment, which is the second largest subbasin of the Abay basin, significantly contributes to the Blue Nile’s outflow. Understanding the dynamics of water availability under the changing climate in such a basin assists in the proper planning of land use and other development activities. This study presents changes in climatic elements such as rainfall, temperature, and evapotranspiration using observation data and regional climate models (RCMs) under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for three future periods. We use a calibrated hydrological model to further assess climate change’s effects on streamflow. We select three RCMs and their ensemble’s mean by evaluating their performance with respect to observations. We apply the modified Mann–Kendall test to detect trends in each dataset. The result shows that annual mean maximum and minimum temperatures increase in the catchment for the 2021–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100 periods as compared to baseline (1989–2018) under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Annual mean maximum temperature and potential evapotranspiration experienced a significant decreasing trend during the year from 1989 to 2018. Furthermore, there was an increasing trend in annual rainfall from 1989 to 2018, which could be related to the cooling of sea surface temperature over the equatorial Pacific. We detect an increasing trend in temperature in both scenarios and all periods; however, no clear trend pattern is found in rainfall. The result from hydrological model simulations reveals that the mean monthly streamflow slightly increases in the winter season while it decreases during the main rainy season. Further study of detailed weather systems, which affect the subbasin’s climate, is recommended.
埃塞俄比亚阿拜盆地Didesa流域气候变化对径流影响的建模
Didesa集水区是Abay盆地的第二大子盆地,对青尼罗河的流出有重要贡献。了解这样一个流域在气候变化下的水资源动态,有助于正确规划土地使用和其他发展活动。本文利用观测资料和区域气候模式(RCMs),研究了未来3个时期降雨、温度和蒸散发等气候要素在两个代表性浓度路径(rcp)下的变化。我们使用校准的水文模型来进一步评估气候变化对河流流量的影响。我们通过评估它们相对于观测值的表现来选择三个rcm及其集合的平均值。我们应用改进的Mann-Kendall检验来检测每个数据集中的趋势。结果表明:在RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下,2021-2040年、2041-2070年和2071-2100年期间,流域年平均最高和最低气温均较基线(1989-2018年)有所增加。1989 - 2018年平均最高气温和潜在蒸散量呈显著下降趋势。1989 - 2018年降水量呈增加趋势,这可能与赤道太平洋海温降温有关。我们发现,在两种情景和所有时期,气温都呈上升趋势;然而,降雨量没有明显的变化趋势。水文模式模拟结果表明,冬季月平均流量略有增加,而主要雨季月平均流量有所减少。建议进一步研究影响亚盆地气候的详细天气系统。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
Advances in Meteorology
Advances in Meteorology 地学天文-气象与大气科学
CiteScore
5.30
自引率
3.40%
发文量
80
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: Advances in Meteorology is a peer-reviewed, Open Access journal that publishes original research articles as well as review articles in all areas of meteorology and climatology. Topics covered include, but are not limited to, forecasting techniques and applications, meteorological modeling, data analysis, atmospheric chemistry and physics, climate change, satellite meteorology, marine meteorology, and forest meteorology.
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