Survival modeling of accident risks of vehicle drivers in Northern Region of Ghana

Abstract

The primary objective of this article is to investigate how survival modelling can be used in traffic accident analysis to explain driver accident risk factors. Accident records of 398 drivers from 2007 to 2009 were obtained from Motor Traffic and Transport Department (MTTD), Ghana Police Service, Northern region. Cox proportional regression model was employed for the analysis using the SAS package. The conclusion was that Survival modelling promises to be a useful tool for road safety analysis and the most significant variables to the risks of accident were driver characteristics (age, gender, experience), their behaviour in traffic (speed, use of alcohol, use of safety belt), the nature of exposure (annual kilometreage, road surface condition) and vehicle characteristics (vehicle age, weight, tyres condition). Implementation of the findings of this study will enable policy makers put up better measures to reduce accident occurrence in the region in particular and the country as a whole.   Key words: Cox proportional model, accident risks, annual vehicle kilometreage, survival modelling, SAS package.