Forecasting the effect of carbon price and log price on the afforestation rate in New Zealand

IF 0.7 4区农林科学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Journal of Forest Economics Pub Date : 2018-12-01 DOI:10.1016/j.jfe.2017.11.002

Bruce Manley

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引用次数: 7

Abstract

The Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) enacted in New Zealand in 2008 allows forest growers to claim units for carbon sequestered by new forests. As afforestation is an important contributor to New Zealand meeting net emission targets there is interest in forecasting the rate of afforestation, particularly how it will vary with the price of carbon in the ETS. Consequently a model is developed to estimate afforestation rate from the Land Expectation Value (LEV) of ‘traditional’ forestry (i.e., revenues only from log sales), the LEV from the carbon trading opportunity that the ETS creates, and land value.

Initially the relationship between afforestation rate and A grade log price during the period 1988 and 2008 is considered. Then the relationship between afforestation rate and LEV is evaluated. Initially the period up to 2008 is considered to evaluate the impact of ‘traditional’ forest profitability on the afforestation rate. Then the period from 2009 to 2015 is included and the impact of carbon is introduced. Finally the cost of land is introduced into the model.

The land affordability model developed allows the future afforestation rate to be forecast from carbon price, log price and land value.

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预测碳价和原木价格对新西兰植树造林率的影响

2008年在新西兰颁布的碳排放交易计划(ETS)允许森林种植者申请新森林所吸收的碳的单位。由于植树造林是新西兰实现净排放目标的重要因素，人们对预测植树造林率很感兴趣，特别是它将如何随排放交易体系中的碳价格而变化。因此，开发了一个模型，根据“传统”林业的土地期望值(即仅来自原木销售的收入)、ETS创造的碳交易机会的LEV和土地价值来估计植树造林率。首先考虑了1988年和2008年A级原木价格与造林率的关系。在此基础上，评价了植树造林率与LEV之间的关系。最初，到2008年的这段时间被认为是评估“传统”森林盈利能力对植树造林率的影响。然后纳入2009年至2015年期间，并介绍了碳的影响。最后，将土地成本引入模型。建立的土地可负担性模型可以通过碳价、原木价和土地价值来预测未来的植树造林率。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of Forest Economics 农林科学-林学

CiteScore

1.70

自引率

0.00%

发文量

审稿时长

>36 weeks

期刊介绍： The journal covers all aspects of forest economics, and publishes scientific papers in subject areas such as the following: forest management problems: economics of silviculture, forest regulation and operational activities, managerial economics; forest industry analysis: economics of processing, industrial organization problems, demand and supply analysis, technological change, international trade of forest products; multiple use of forests: valuation of non-market priced goods and services, cost-benefit analysis of environment and timber production, external effects of forestry and forest industry; forest policy analysis: market and intervention failures, regulation of forest management, ownership, taxation; land use and economic development: deforestation and land use problem, national resource accounting, contribution to national and regional income and employment. forestry and climate change: using forestry to mitigate climate change, economic analysis of bioenergy, adaption of forestry to climate change.