MaxEnt Modeling to Predict Current and Future Distributions of Batocera lineolata (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) under Climate Change in China

IF 1.3 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q3 ECOLOGY
Ainan Li, Jiawen Wang, Rulin Wang, Hua Yang, Wei Yang, Chun-ping Yang, Zhang Jin
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引用次数: 25

Abstract

ABSTRACT Climate warming extends insect distribution areas, increases voltinism and makes pest prevention and control more difficult. The MaxEnt ecological niche modeling software was used to simulate Batocera lineolata distribution and predict potential range changes under climate change scenarios. Future B. lineolata distribution was modeled for three climate scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) to predict suitable regions in the 2050s and 2070s. A receiver operating characteristic curve was used to estimate model precision and a jackknife test was used to screen the dominant environmental variables. The results show that the area under the curve of the B. lineolata distribution model could reach an ‘Excellent’ standard. Under current climate conditions, the most suitable region for B. lineolata is 25.5–40.5°N, 102–120°E, distributed discontinuously from south to north and covering an area of 47.17 × 104 km2. For predicted future distribution, except for a decrease in moderately suitable regions under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in the 2050s and RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 in the 2070s, other suitable regions are likely to extend; highly suitable regions would increase continuously. This research provides a theoretical basis to improve pest management strategies regarding B. lineolata to face the challenge of climate change.
MaxEnt模型预测气候变化下中国细纹斑蝶(鞘翅目:角蝶科)的当前和未来分布
摘要气候变暖扩大了昆虫的分布范围,增加了电压性,增加了害虫的防治难度。MaxEnt生态位建模软件用于模拟线斑蝶的分布,并预测气候变化情景下的潜在范围变化。针对三种气候情景(RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5)对未来的B.lineolata分布进行了建模,以预测2050年代和2070年代的合适区域。接收器工作特性曲线用于估计模型精度,而升降刀试验用于筛选主要环境变量。结果表明,B.lineolata分布模型的曲线下面积可以达到“优秀”标准。在目前的气候条件下,B.lineolata最适合生长的地区是25.5–40.5°N,102–120°E,由南向北不连续分布,面积为47.17×104km2。对于预测的未来分布,除了2050年代RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5下的适度适宜区域减少,以及2070年代的RCP2.6和RCP4.5下的中等适宜区域减少外,其他适宜区域可能会扩展;高度适合的区域将不断增加。本研究为改善油桐害虫管理策略以应对气候变化的挑战提供了理论依据。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
Ecoscience
Ecoscience 环境科学-生态学
CiteScore
2.80
自引率
0.00%
发文量
13
审稿时长
>36 weeks
期刊介绍: Écoscience, is a multidisciplinary journal that covers all aspects of ecology. The journal welcomes submissions in English or French and publishes original work focusing on patterns and processes at various temporal and spatial scales across different levels of biological organization. Articles include original research, brief communications and reviews.
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