Mortality Analysis of COVID-19 Confirmed cases in Pakistan

Abstract

Introduction: COVID-19, a novel disease, appeared in December 2019 in China and rapidly spread across the world. Till the second week of April 2020, high incidence (2.9/100,000) and cases fatality rates (1.7%) were observed in Pakistan. This study was conducted to determine the temporal and spatial distribution of the first 100 deaths attributed to COVID-19 in Pakistan and their associated demographic factors. Method: We conducted a descriptive epidemiological analysis of the first 100 deaths reported among RT-PCR confirmed COVID-19 cases. Demographic, epidemiological, and risk factors information was obtained associated comorbidities and clinical signs and symptoms were recorded and frequencies were determined. Results: A total of 100 mortalities with overall Case Fatality Rate 1.67% (CFR) were analysed. Median age of patients was 64.5 years (IQR: 54-70) with 75% (n=75) Males. Among all deaths reported, 71 (71%) cases had one or more documented comorbidities at the time of diagnosis. Most frequently reported co-morbidities were; hypertension (67 %), followed by Diabetes Mellitus 945%) and Ischemic Heart Diseases (27%). First death was reported on 18 March 2020 and the most frequent presenting symptoms were shortness of breath (87%) and fever (79%). Median duration of illness was eight days (IQR: 4-11 days), the median delay reaching hospital to seek health care was three days (IQR: 0-6 days) while median duration of hospital stay was also three days (IQR: 1-7 days). Among all reported deaths, 62% were attributed to local transmission as these cases had no history of international travel. The most affected age group was 60-69 years while no death reported in age group below 20 years. Conclusion: High CFR among old age group and its association with co-morbidities (chronic disease) suggests targeted interventions such as social distancing and strict quarantine measure for elderly and morbid people. Comparative studies among deaths and recovered patients are recommended to explore further disease dynamics. Key words: COVID-19, Cases Fatality Rates, Co-morbidities, Epidemiology, Pakistan, Co-morbidities