Trends in Extreme Precipitation Indices in Northwest Ethiopia: Comparative Analysis Using the Mann–Kendall and Innovative Trend Analysis Methods

IF 3 Q2 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Climate Pub Date : 2023-07-31 DOI:10.3390/cli11080164

Aimro Likinaw, Arragaw Alemayehu, W. Bewket

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引用次数: 1

Abstract

This study analyzed long-term extreme precipitation indices using 4 × 4 km gridded data obtained from the National Meteorological Agency of Ethiopia between 1981 and 2018. The study examined trends in extreme precipitation over three districts (Lay Gayint, Tach Gayint, and Simada) in the northwestern highlands of Ethiopia. Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) and Mann–Kendall (MK) trend tests were used to study extreme precipitation trends. Based on the ITA result, the calculated values of nine indices (90% of the analyzed indices) showed significant increasing trends (p < 0.01) in Lay Gayint. In Tach Gayint, 70% (seven indices) showed significantly increasing trends at p < 0.01. On the other hand, 60% of the extreme indices showed significant downward trends (p < 0.01) in Simada. The MK test revealed that 30% of the extreme indices had significantly increasing trends (p < 0.01) in Lay Gayint. In Tach Gayint, 30% of the extreme indices showed significant increasing trends at p < 0.05, while 10% of the extreme indices exhibited significant increasing trends at p < 0.01. In Simada, 20% of the extreme indices showed significant increasing trends at p < 0.05. Overall, the results showed that the ITA method can identify a variety of significant trends that the MK test misses.

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埃塞俄比亚西北部极端降水指数变化趋势:基于Mann-Kendall和创新趋势分析方法的比较分析

本研究使用1981年至2018年埃塞俄比亚国家气象局获得的4 × 4公里网格数据分析了长期极端降水指数。该研究调查了埃塞俄比亚西北部高地的三个地区(Lay Gayint, Tach Gayint和Simada)的极端降水趋势。采用创新趋势分析(ITA)和Mann-Kendall (MK)趋势检验研究极端降水趋势。根据ITA结果，Lay Gayint的9个指标计算值(占分析指标的90%)呈显著上升趋势(p < 0.01)。7项指标中有70%呈显著升高趋势，p < 0.01。极端指数中有60%呈极显著下降趋势(p < 0.01)。MK检验显示，30%的极端指数在Lay Gayint有显著升高趋势(p < 0.01)。塔河盖茵地区30%的极端指数呈显著升高趋势(p < 0.05)， 10%的极端指数呈显著升高趋势(p < 0.01)。Simada地区20%的极端指数呈显著升高趋势，p < 0.05。总体而言，结果表明ITA方法可以识别MK测试错过的各种重要趋势。

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来源期刊

Climate Earth and Planetary Sciences-Atmospheric Science

CiteScore

5.50

自引率

5.40%

发文量

172

审稿时长

11 weeks

期刊介绍： Climate is an independent, international and multi-disciplinary open access journal focusing on climate processes of the earth, covering all scales and involving modelling and observation methods. The scope of Climate includes: Global climate Regional climate Urban climate Multiscale climate Polar climate Tropical climate Climate downscaling Climate process and sensitivity studies Climate dynamics Climate variability (Interseasonal, interannual to decadal) Feedbacks between local, regional, and global climate change Anthropogenic climate change Climate and monsoon Cloud and precipitation predictions Past, present, and projected climate change Hydroclimate.