Long-term precipitation events in the eastern part of the Baltic Sea region

Abstract

Precipitation anomalies have a significant impact on both natural environmental and human activity. Long lasting drought analysis has received great attention on a global and regional scale while prolonged rainy periods so far have been much less studied. However, long-term precipitation events are also important and threatening. The situation around the Baltic Sea in 2017 revealed that such periods could cause significant losses in agriculture.

The rainy periods of 30, 60, and 90 consecutive days in a given year during which the maximum precipitation amount was recorded in the eastern part of the Baltic Sea region were analysed in this study. Daily precipitation amount data from the E-OBS gridded dataset was used. The investigation covered a period from 1950 to 2019. The changes in magnitude and timing of such rainy periods were evaluated.

It was found that the annual precipitation in the eastern part of the Baltic Sea region increased significantly during the analysed period. Positive changes were observed throughout the year except during April and September. The amounts of precipitation during rainy periods of different duration also increased in most of the investigated areas but changes were mostly insignificant. Consequently, a decrease in the ratio of precipitation amount during the rainy period to annual precipitation was observed. It was also found that the rainy periods occurred earlier, especially in the case of the rainy periods of 60- and 90-days durations. Such tendencies pose an increasing threat to agriculture.